How to Correctly Read a Weather Forecast

Ever had one of these weeks?

It’s not as bad as it may seem at first glance. Remember that those numbers are meant for consumption by the general public, and not for elite bikers, such as ourselves.

Also, those percentages cover a large area and a significant span of time. On the other hand, we generally have a specific, narrow area where we ride on our way to work, or to run errands and often that is only during a short percentage of the day.

Therefore, my scientific and mathematical process, known as the “Biker Meteorological Correction” goes like this:

  1. Area of the Prediction divided by Area that Biker Cares About, which always results in 10 percent or less;
  2. Time Period of the Prediction divided by Time Period that Biker Cares About, which also always results in 10 percent or less;
  3. Therefore, since I don’t know how those two ten percents interact with each other, just multiply the given meteorological percent of terrible weather by ten percent and that is your actual chance that you’ll get soaked. (Getting moist or just drizzled on doesn’t count for scientific purposes.)*

So, if there is a 90% chance of rain showers today, you, Biker, only have a 9% chance that you’ll get soaked.  That is well within the “Biker Range of Safe Risk of Getting Soaked” which most bikers agree is 10%. The logical corollary rule is that as long as the weather prediction is no more than 100% bad, you’ll be fine. Probably.

If you see this though, watch out.

* Note: This theory and its corollary were both proven by Eratosthenes of Alexandria, right after he calculated the circumference of the Earth using a well and a stick, which you can find out about here.

This posting is part of a rare, multi-part series, the second of which deals with the unlikely chance that you will, in fact, get soaked. Read on here. Ride on!

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